The regional fallouts of the conflict engulfing Iran are yet to reveal themselves, but one catastrophic consequence is definitely not in doubt: Britain’s migration crisis will further deepen.
Iran is already the nation from which many channel crossers have come, at more than 25,000 by the end of 2024. This aside, the ONS put the number of Iranian born living in the UK in 2021 at 70,000. Add to this those who have come since – legally and illegally – and there could well be close to 100,000 Iranian-born people already here. This will act as a powerful magnet for those displaced and seeking sanctuary in the wake of an imploding Iran. Without a doubt, the displacement of potentially millions of Iranians out of a population of over 90 million will have a serious impact on Britain’s migration crisi.s
The Cato Institute in America recently published an analysis of the likelihood of a refugee crisis, should the conflict in Iran escalate further. Given that the United States have done exactly what Cato warned against, and launched targeted air strikes against three Iranian nuclear facilities, Cato’s predictions need to be understood for their impact on Britain’s migrant crisis.
While it is impossible to say how many Iranians will leave Iran should the conflict escalate yet again, Cato draws a comparison between Iran and Syria, another nearby nation that has experienced major international and civil conflict in recent years, which has become a byword for humanitarian crises.
As Alex Nowrasteh writes: “At its peak, a quarter of Syrians were living outside of the country as refugees, and another quarter were internally displaced persons. The chaotic repercussions of such a massive refugee population disrupted the Middle East and Europe.”
Presuming that a similar level of disruption might happen in Iran, Nowrasteh’s conclusions are stark: if a quarter of Iran’s 90 million strong population is dispersed internationally, the refugee crisis it could spawn will be nearly ten times the size of Syria’s, with potentially 23 million people displaced. This is the worst-case scenario, but it is a likely one: already “northern border crossings to Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Armenia are overwhelmed with Iranians trying to leave… Even refugee flows of one million Iranians by the end of this year and 2.3 million by the end of next year would also be a disaster.”
Indeed it would. What of Britain? If we continue Nowrasteh’s comparisons, here are the salient facts:
- As of 2022, there were six million Syrian refugees internationally.
- Britain accepted just shy of 30,000 by 2022, having fallen from a peak of 47,000 before Covid.
- This means Britain received roughly 0.5% of all Syrian refugees through 10 years.
If the worst case scenario happens, and a comparable number of people leave Iran and Britain accepts a comparable number of refugees over the same period of time, this could mean 1,500,000 Iranian refugees over the next decade.
This is more than ten times the current number of asylum seekers in the UK. As of the most recent count in 2023, there were 136 thousand asylum seekers awaiting a decision – if ten times this number arrives here, the expected cost of housing asylum seekers alone will rocket up from the £15bn for ten years predicted by the National Audit Office, to £150bn.