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Professor Brian Bell, Chair of the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC), believes that Rishi Sunak might just pull off meeting the Conservatives’ promise to slash net migration. He credits the government’s recent move to ban foreign students from bringing their families to the UK, which has led to a larger drop in migration numbers than expected.
According to Bell, this ban, enforced since January, could drive net migration down below 200,000 by the next election, possibly even hitting 150,000. We’re doubtful. If Professor Bell turns out be right, we at Migration Watch will be only too pleased.
And yet, we can’t shake off the feeling that the good professor is overly optimistic. Why? Well, because there’s no cap on legal migration. No cap on student visas, work visas, health and care visas, humanitarian visas, family visas – you name it. If there’s no cap on immigration, it is very difficult to control the numbers pouring into the country legally. And without control of our borders (legal and illegal), we lose control of the country itself. We will say more about this in a short paper we propose to publish next week.
Prof. Bell believes that the ban on student dependants will make a dent in the numbers, as will the hike in salary thresholds, particularly for semi-skilled roles. But let’s not forget, there’s still the Shortage Occupation List, and certain sectors like teaching and healthcare have their own salary structures, untouched by these changes.
And before we break out the champagne, let’s talk about the graduate visa route. Foreign students, many of whom breeze through questionable courses at less-than-stellar institutions, can linger in the UK for up to two years post-graduation. And what happens next? Many of them dive straight into the gig economy or snag low-skilled jobs once their visa expires. So while Bell’s optimism will go down well with the government, there are still gaping holes in the system that need plugging.
This is a preview of Migration Watch’s free weekly newsletter. Please consider signing up to the newsletter directly, you can do so here and will receive an email copy of the newsletter every Friday as soon as it is released.