The Home Office produces an annual ‘cohort analysis’ of asylum claims permitting a comprehensive understanding of what eventually happened to the people who claimed asylum in the UK in a particular year.
This short blog will outline the outcomes of the 2012 asylum cohort. Data is available for the 2013 cohort however around one third of them have an unknown outcome at this stage (they likely remain in the system, perhaps at appeal stage etc). For this reason we will be looking at 2012.
In that year there were 21,843 applications for asylum. Of these, 5,635 (26%) were granted refugee status at what is known as the ‘initial decision’ stage and an additional 953 were granted some other form of protection. This means that they did not meet the criteria of the refugee convention however it was considered to have been unsafe for them to return home so they were granted humanitarian protection or discretionary leave to remain. A total of 10,908 people had their application for asylum rejected at initial decision.
All applicants have the right of appeal, and 7,744 lodged an appeal against their unsuccessful applications. Of these 2,080 were successful.
Thus the total number of people granted asylum or another form of protection in 2012 was 8,668, or 40%. 10,806 were unsuccessful in their application for protection, with an additional 2,639 cases where the outcome is still unknown.
Just 4,656 people who applied in 2012 have left the country (2,904 were forcibly removed and 1,752 departed voluntarily). This means that of the 10,806 applicants who were unsuccessful, 6,150 remain in the UK.
In total therefore, 8,668 of the 2012 cohort remain in the UK legally and 6,150 remain illegally. The total of these, 14,818, is 68% of the total number of applications for that year.
However, the cases where the outcome is unknown are presumably still in the system so a final proportion of those applicants still in the UK is not yet available. As of now, we know that only 4,656 of the total cohort for 2012 have left meaning that 17,187, or 79% remain in the UK.
Looking over the longer term, in the ten years between 2004 and 2013 just 60,000 people were removed of the 240,000 applicants meaning that 75% remain in the UK.
Table 1. Data extracted from Asylum Cohort Analysis, 2012 and 2004 – 2013
| Cohort Analysis of Asylum Claims | 2012 | 2004-2013 |
| Applications | 21,843 | 240,338 |
| Grants of Asylum at Initial Decision | 5,635 | 36,051 |
| Grants of Humanitarian Protection/Discretionary Leave | 953 | 19,720 |
| Grants on Appeal | 2,080 | 27,152 |
| Total Granted Asylum/Protection | 8,668 | 82,923 |
| Total Refused | 12,806 | 141,657 |
| Cases Decision Unknown | 2,639 | 15,758 |
| Enforced Removal | 2,904 | 40,482 |
| Voluntary Departures | 1,752 | 19,427 |
| Total Departures | 4,656 | 59,909 |
| Total Remain in UK (Applications minus Departures) | 17,187 | 180,429 |
| Total Remain in UK as % of Applications | 79% | 75% |
These data can be found at Table as.06 of the Home Office Asylum Statistics here: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/427908/asylum2-q1-2015-tabs.ods