UK Edition
What is Theresa May doing with this reshuffle? The answer may lie with a Conservative electorate that has undergone profound change. Today, the Conservative Party’s following is far more pro-Brexit, more working-class than that which handed David Cameron a surprise majority back in 2015. Making sense of this change is crucial to making sense of where the party should head next.
It is no secret that British politics is in a process of realignment, yet many continue to underestimate the scale of this change. According to the British Election Study, between the elections of 2015 and 2017 alone, support for the Tories fell back among Remainers by around 8 points but increased among Leavers by the same margin.
Tory support among liberals fell back by around 6 points but increased among conservatives by 14 points. It dropped among graduates by around 4 points but jumped by 16 points among those with no qualifications.
Consequently, at the last election the Tories had one of their best results in modern times among workers, traditional social conservatives and non-graduates – all of whom are far more supportive of a hard Brexit than many Conservative donors, big business and Cabinet ministers. These voters are clear about where the Tories should head next and there is one big message – they really want the party to reform immigration.
Between 2015 and 2017, support for the Conservatives among voters who think that Britain should prioritise control of migration increased by 16 points – to a striking 61 per cent, well ahead of the figure for those who want single-market access prioritised. This is a position shared by around one in four Labour voters.
All of which means that the Tories’ fate depends on their most conservative backers of recent times – whose loyalty depends on whether or not the party will, finally, reform Britain’s immigration system.
How should the Conservatives deal with this dilemma?
They stand at a crossroads: down one path lies a Cameron-reboot aimed at tempting millennials, middle-class liberals and Remainers in London and the university towns with offers of a soft Brexit, tuition-fee reform or a new housing policy.
The other path requires responding to their much larger army of fervently pro-Brexit working-class voters who are looking for a “real” Brexit and who, it should not be forgotten, have already shown their willingness to abandon the Tories when their concerns are not met. Ukip may no longer be a danger to the Tories in elections but apathy easily could be.
Sandwiched between these two routes is a middle way, and this is where the reshuffle comes in, exemplified by the appointment of a new party chairman, Brandon Lewis, who comes from a very pro-Brexit and anti-immigration seat.
This narrow path aims to repair the party’s relationship with over-60s while admitting that the focus must be on 30 and 40-somethings who, while remaining wary of Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party, swung hardest against the Tories last June.
This means promoting a new generation of Conservatives to start a new conversation with these voters about how Brexit can be used to create a fairer society and far stronger public services. It means launching a genuine revolution in social mobility as well, to speak directly to those working-class voters, including many socially conservative Labour supporters, who agree with the Tories on Brexit and immigration but remain sceptical about their stance on the economy.
The evidence shows that keeping Jeremy Corbyn out of Number 10 will require the Tories putting themselves in uncomfortable territory; speaking far louder to workers who believe that the economy is not working for all; to young families who worry intensely about housing, healthcare and the future for their baby-boomer parents; and to the concerns of non-London England, including the pro-Brexit Labour heartlands.
If they can walk this fine line successfully, the destination could be a landslide. But make no mistake, the tectonic plates of British politics are on the move and the Conservative Party needs to move quickly to ensure that it is not left behind.
Matthew Goodwin is professor of politics at the University of Kent
Whether the Tories meet triumph or disaster depends on immigration reform