Million more migrants heading to Britain before next election, ministers warned

The Home Office has privately predicted a further sharp rise in immigration by the next election, with an influx of another 1.1 million foreign workers and students projected in 2024 unless ministers take action.

The Telegraph can reveal that an official document sent to Downing Street last year warned about the projected spikes in net migration and set out a series of policy options for the Conservatives to meet their 2019 manifesto pledge to bring “overall numbers down”.

The 12-page analysis forecast that work and study visa applications could increase by as much as 40 per cent in the three years to 2024-25, with more than 700,000 overseas students and 320,000 skilled workers arriving in that year. 

It would come as the Tories head into an election where the UK’s post-Brexit control of its borders will be a major campaign issue.

The revelation came on top of a record 504,000 in net migration posted last summer with expert forecasts that net migration could rise further to hit a record 700,000 for the year ending December – and potentially even 997,000 when the official figures are published in two weeks’ time.

While the warnings from officials are about legal migration, Rishi Sunak has made tackling illegal entry into the UK one of his five priorities

On Tuesday he will tell fellow leaders at the Council of Europe that tackling small boats is not just a British issue.

He will say illegal migration is putting unbearable pressures on countries throughout the continent and that they need to “cooperate across borders” to tackle the humanitarian disaster caused by illegal immigration. 

On Monday, Suella Braverman warned that as well as preventing “illegal migration”, the Government “must not lose sight of the importance of controlling legal migration as well”.

The Home Secretary also warned that an “unexamined drive towards multiculturalism”,  combined with identity politics, is a recipe for disaster.

Mrs Braverman has been pushing for tougher controls on legal migration and is believed to favour raising the salary threshold for skilled workers, currently set at £26,600. That is 20 per cent below the median UK salary of £33,280.

There are thought to be divisions in the Cabinet on how to deal with migration, with some ministers relaxed about an influx of foreign workers, believing it can help boost the economy and others determined to cut the overall number.

The document, entitled Net Migration Briefing August 2022, warned that there was a “limited window” to make changes as any new policies would “take time to implement”.

It is understood that the analysis by Home Office officials was prepared during the Tory leadership campaign ready for any incoming home secretary in September. 

Sources said that it was sent to Number 10, but a spokesman for the Prime Minister denied that he had any knowledge of it. “It was before the current PM’s time,” said one source.

It set out 12 “policy levers” that could be used to bring down net migration, including capping immigration routes, scrapping some specialist visa schemes, increasing the skilled workers’ salary thresholds required to enter the UK, and restricting the rights of workers’ or students’ dependents to come to the UK.

However, the only policy close to fruition is a ban on one-year Master’s students bringing in dependents, according to government sources. The report presages potential Whitehall battles over a possible crackdown. 

It said: “There is strong pressure from across Whitehall to significantly increase further issuing visas to groups who are likely to add to net migration (e.g. care workers, broadband workers, some types of students).

“However, to be confident of achieving the manifesto commitment to reduce overall numbers, consideration will be needed as to whether some brakes on the usage of the [points-based system for skilled workers] are required.”

While it forecast that Ukraine, Hong Kong and Afghan visas would decline, it predicted student visa applications would more than double, from 300,000 in 2019-20 to 720,000 in 2024-25, and rise from 150,000 work visas to more than 300,000. 

Even those figures may be an underestimate based on actual numbers already published.

‘Upward pressure’ on immigration

The report admitted that “robust” forecasts could not be made about net migration – the number entering minus the number leaving the UK – but suggested there would be “upward pressure” on immigration and post-pandemic “uncertainty” over whether as many Britons as anticipated would be tempted to emigrate post-Brexit. 

It offered two options: the first would be to “pursue actions” to reduce net migration with a “collectively agreed policy change” to achieve that goal by 2024.

It said: “This could include capping some routes, changing thresholds (skills/salary), restricting the rights of dependants, and/or reducing the attractiveness of the graduate visa.” 

The second would involve ministers arguing that the UK had “control” over immigration, and was “making choices” to offer safe and legal routes to refugees and support the labour market, universities and NHS. 

“A strong narrative will be required to explain the rationale, especially if the labour market begins to contract,” it warned.

Pros and cons of different policies

The report then conducted a detailed analysis of the pros and cons of different policies, based on their impact on numbers and the wider economy.

“Research shows that factors that encourage people to move to the UK (managed migration) are: relative income differentials, networks linking destination and source countries, language skills, proximity between nations,” it said. 

“While these persist, there will be strong demand for UK visas.”

Options offered to limit migration include shutting down the two-year graduate visa route, under which foreign students can remain in the UK without working after getting their first degree, and the reintroduction of the requirement for skilled workers to have a degree, rather than the equivalent of A-levels.

A Home Office spokesman said: “The public rightly expect us to control our borders and we remain committed to reducing net migration over time, while ensuring we have the skills our economy needs."

On Monday, the Office for National Statistics revealed that migrants are more likely to have degrees than British people.

Fewer than one in three, 31 per cent, British working-age adults born in the UK had higher education qualifications in 2021, according to its analysis of census data. This was in stark contrast to the 44 per cent share of those born outside the UK.

UK residents who were born in Nigeria are more than twice as likely to have higher education qualifications than those who were born in the UK, according to the figures.