Rishi Sunak’s pledge to reduce overall immigration is on course to fail after the government’s budget watchdog upgraded its forecast to predict that net migration will settle at 245,000 a year in the long term.
The Office for Budget Responsibility’s estimate is almost double the level it predicted last year and 40,000 higher than it projected in November.
It said that it had upgraded its projection for long-term net migration because of “significantly higher” levels of non-EU immigration than expected since Brexit.
The higher than expected level of immigration will add 0.5 per cent to economic growth by 2027 but it is likely to reignite an internal Conservative party row over migration as it threatens the prime minister’s pledge to reduce overall numbers.
