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Putin’s war is triggering another migrant crisis

As the Ukraine conflict displaces people across the planet, the first ripples are being felt at the EU’s southern borders

Illegal immigration, people smuggling gangs, violence. Britain is all too familiar with this destructive network amid a sharp increase in the small-boat Channel crossings bringing thousands of migrants to the UK every month. And with countries on the EU’s external borders now also reporting dramatic increases in illegal immigration amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the situation is set to become even more dangerous throughout Europe. The statistics are startling, but go largely underreported. 

Fears are growing that food shortages caused by the closure of Ukrainian ports and the decimation of this year’s harvest by Putin’s invasion will lead to an exodus from developing countries in Africa and Asia which rely on Ukrainian wheat imports. Some EU countries are already feeling the first effects of the global turmoil: Hungary is raising its formidable border fence with Serbia – also the EU’s external border – by another metre to hold back a rising tide of illegal migration. 

The Hungarian authorities say 109,000 migrants tried to cross the border illegally in the first half of 2022, compared to 46,000 in the same period last year. Italy has meanwhile seen a major increase in Mediterranean migrant boat crossings. A particularly sharp uptick this month led to nightmarish conditions in Lampedusa, the destination of choice for Libyan people smugglers charging hundreds of dollars for spaces on packed dinghies. 

The chaos is also filtering inland. Czech police are increasingly concerned about the prevalence of international smuggling gangs taking migrants from the third world to Germany. Meanwhile, Austrian police arrested 205 people for involvement in a huge Central European smuggling network trafficking thousands of Syrian migrants from East to West. 

In this context, it’s no surprise that countries at the EU’s external borders sympathise with Britain’s illegal immigration woes. They also face similar legal pushback against attempts to discourage people smugglers – in December 2020, the European Court of Justice ruled that Hungary was breaking EU law by deporting illegal migrants back to Serbia. 

Yet these countries point out a direct correlation between illegal immigration and crime, due in large part to a gang-based smuggling system which is a breeding ground for violence. Hungarian politicians describe the smuggling network as a “well-organised area of crime” irresponsibly dismissed by western politicians who see the phenomenon as "forgivable." The apparent lack of international will to clamp down on such criminality causes deep frustration on both sides of the EU border. 

This frustration recently bubbled out into the open after a deadly shoot-out between rival migrant smuggling gangs from Afghanistan and Pakistan just outside the Serbian city of Subotica, near the border with Hungary. One person was killed, a sixteen-year-old girl was critically injured, and several police officers were hurt amid an armed conflict over smuggling territory which struck terror into the local population. 

The incident highlighted pent-up anger about the destabilising effect of illegal migration into the EU, with claims that Subotica residents have been “publicly silent” about various other nefarious activities linked to migrant smugglers, including thefts and other armed conflicts. 

Portrayed as a “stark warning” of a new era of chaotic illegal migration from the developing world, the shoot-out dominated the Serbian and Hungarian news for days but was passed over in silence by the western international media.  

Still, the dangers of illegal migration may force their way into the international spotlight as the global ramifications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine become clearer. Even if a deal on the export of Ukrainian produce is finally struck, significant damage to food supplies has already been done by a war to which no end is in sight. The effects on long-term migration flows will be profound.  

Fervent dreams of Europe are the inevitable result of greater impoverishment in the developing world. This is, in turn, a dream scenario for violent smuggling gangs and other predators keen to exploit such desperation. As the Ukraine war displaces people across the planet, the first ripples are already being felt at the EU’s southern borders. After passing through the continent, they will eventually reach the shores of England too. 

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