Rishi Sunak’s pledge to “stop the boats” is on course to fail, according to Border Force internal forecasts that predict 40,000 migrants will cross the Channel this year.
Under its worst-case scenario, crossings could rise as high as 55,000, which would be a record.
The Home Office agency has updated its forecasts based on the numbers that have arrived in the first six months and its prediction of how many will attempt the crossing later this year. This is based on numbers crossing into eastern and southern Europe and intelligence on people-smuggling activity in northern France.
Border Force models its Channel crossing forecasts on three scenarios and has downgraded its estimates based on lower-than-expected crossings for the first six months of the year.
Under its
